Most investors see a 52-week low, a sudden CEO departure, and an aggressive activist group kicking in the front door as a reason to run. I look at it as a reason to pull out the calculator.

As of February 15, 2026, Sylogist Ltd. ($SYZ) is sitting at a multi-year low of $4.01. To the casual observer, it is a company in chaos. But my forensic look through the “noise” of the boardroom reveals a high-margin SaaS engine that the market is currently mispricing by more than 100%.

The “Forensic” Value Gap

The market is currently valuing Sylogist like a failing, legacy software firm. It trades at a mere 1.5x Sales, while the rest of the Canadian SaaS sector is averaging 3.4x.

Why the disconnect? The market is obsessed with the “story” of the leadership transition and ignoring the “math” of the business model:

  • 73% of Sylogist’s revenue is now high-margin, recurring SaaS. They aren’t just selling software; they are the “digital pipes” for municipal governments and school districts.

  • Their Net Retention Rate (NRR) stands at 106%. This means that even without signing a single new customer, the business grows because existing clients—government entities with high switching costs—are deeply embedded in the platform.

The “Sovereign Floor”: Who is sitting on my side of the table?

One of the strongest forensic signals is the quality of ownership.

  • Institutional heavyweights like PenderFund Capital Management and Seymour Investment Management hold significant stakes.

  • OneMove Capital, the activist group, owns 9.2% and is forcing a sale or a massive turnaround.

These value specialists will not let this company be sold for pennies. Their presence creates what I call a “Sovereign Floor,” protecting the downside while they force the Board to unlock value.

Why the P/E is “Lying”

If you look at a standard stock screener, Sylogist looks “broken” with negative or inflated earnings. But my audit strips away the restructuring cloud—the one-time legal fees from the proxy fight and the heavy R&D spend required to complete the SaaS pivot.

When I normalize these costs, the True EBITDA margin is significantly higher than the 19.3% currently reported. Once the “Innovation Tax” of the cloud migration is paid, the cash flow “pop” should be sudden and significant.

The Verdict: A 112% Upside Opportunity

At $4.01, you are paying for a “worst-case” bear scenario. But my forensic modeling, based on a conservative rerate to peer multiples, points to an intrinsic value of $8.50 per share.

The market is pricing in a 100% chance of failure, while the forensic data suggests a 90% chance of a high-margin recovery or a strategic buyout by a larger player like Tyler Technologies.

Get the Full 8-Page Audit

The summary above only scratches the surface. In my full report, I dive deep into:

  • The “Legacy Drag” vs. the SaaS Machine: Exactly how much legacy revenue is left to “burn off”.

  • The EBITDA Bridge: My line-by-line math of the “Normalized” profits.

  • The Valuation Framework: My proprietary DCF and Sensitivity Analysis—modeling the “Bull, Base, and Bear” cases.

Don’t trade the headlines—read the math.

Check out the full 8-page report here: https://open.substack.com/pub/yonatanbrunshtein/p/forensic-audit-sylogist-ltd-syzto?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web