In a yield-starved environment, public investors are overlooking a specialized vehicle currently delivering elite "venture-style" returns with public-market liquidity. My latest audit of Stack Capital Group ($STCK.TO) reveals a company that has successfully moved from the "capital deployment" phase into a massive "liquidity harvest" cycle for 2026.

I. The Performance Delta: ROE vs. The Big Banks While the Big 5 Canadian banks are averaging ~13.5% ROE, Stack Capital has reported a trailing twelve-month (TTM) ROE of 29.9%—a 121% variance over the index.

  • Net Profit Margin: An astounding 90.2%, significantly outperforming the financial industry average of 35.8%.

  • Clean Balance Sheet: Stack operates with zero long-term debt, maintaining a 0% Debt/Equity ratio while peers often leverage to drive returns.

  • Peer Context: Unlike traditional tech ETFs (e.g., QQQ) which are limited to public equities, Stack acts as a direct proxy for "SpaceX alpha". This private equity structure captures the valuation step-ups that occur before a company hits the public market—growth that is typically finished by the time a stock enters a standard ETF.

II. The "Liquidity Harvest" Portfolio (2026 Targets) The market is mispricing Stack's Book Value (BV) because it doesn't account for the "forced buying" that occurs when these private giants go public. Here is the breakdown of the $14.26/share Book Value as of the latest audit:

  • SpaceX ($2.28/share of BV): Starlink has crossed 5 million subscribers, and recent secondary market activity hints at a US$1.5 trillion IPO target for 2026.

  • CoreWeave ($2.37/share of BV): The leading AI hyper-scaler. Following a US$14.2B deal with Meta, CoreWeave is now Stack’s largest single asset.

  • Canva ($1.30/share of BV): Valued at US$42B as of late 2025. With an H1 2026 IPO window and $3.3B in annualized revenue, Canva is the premier software listing on my radar.

  • OpenAI & Databricks: Combined, these represent the "AI Infrastructure" core of the portfolio, with IPO rumors intensifying for late 2026.

III. The "Venture Analyst" Price Target Stack currently trades at a 4.6x P/E, suggesting the market views these gains as "one-off" events.

  • The Rerating Thesis: Historically, elite asset managers with ~30% ROE trade at 1.5x to 2.0x Book Value.

  • Base Case Target: At a 1.5x multiple of current $14.26 BV, the stock should trade at $21.39, representing a 26% immediate upside even without accounting for 2026 portfolio mark-ups.

IV. Risk Factors

  • IPO Window Shifts: A delay in the projected 2026 IPO window for Canva or SpaceX could push back the anticipated NAV rerating.

  • Private Valuation Volatility: Any broad pullback in private market sentiment could impact "mark-to-market" gains in the short term.

Join the channel #the-venture-analyst for access to a ROE and Liquidity report

Disclaimer: Independent researcher, not a financial advisor. Author may hold positions in securities mentioned. Always do your own DD.