With over 2,000 people joining the 2022 #StockPickingContest, this was the largest one yet!
All data is stored on my site, and you can view your position on the link below - note the sorting buttons on the top of the table
This has been the worse start that I can remember since we started tracking in 2015. Because we are in sensitive times, I won't comment on the causes, I will just present the numbers. Notice the inverse correlation with the gold sector!
This year, @mathematics and I got off our lazy butts (remember we do this for fun, and have real careers elsewhere) and upgraded the contest from a massive google sheet to a database. We can now track trends throughout the year. Below shows the weekly average and standard deviation (68%) range of contestants. Sadly, right out of the gate we started negative and even today, we continue to drop. I find it note-worthy that the spread is increasing and I question when it will eventually level off and/or could it possibly even decrease at some point.
And because we are off to such a tough start, the top 20 most picked companies are no better. In fact, they are off to a terrible start.
But how does this compare to the 1,638 total companies chosen in the contest?
In the beginning of this year, I posted the following chart on Twitter that shows the top 20 most picked companies over the last 4 years, which clearly shows the risk associated when choosing hot/popular, hyped/highly-marketed companies.
The CEO of Fireweed Zinc $FWZ, Brandon Macdonald (I am a happy share holder by the way) commented:
Brandon was correct. Instead of working on the old data, we just started tracking for 2022 and on average, right from day 1, the top 20 most picked companies are under performing the basket. Interestingly, they both follow the overall market trend yet the top 20 appear to be more adversely affected.
So where does this lead us?
Sadly, I'm not sure at the moment. But I will leave you with an Easter egg. Only those who were on CEO.ca early on will spot it.
There is 1 person in the 2022 contest who is not using CEO.ca but is a Jedi-master when it comes to picking stocks. Can you spot him?
Out of 2,172 contestants, only 473 (22%) are still in the positive. Below is the top 25 with @JPH currently in the lead.
In conclusion, let's remember we are scary times and I can only hope you are staying emotionally and mentally strong. Many of us are seeing red on our investments while we watch the prices of nearly everything escalate at an exponential rate. Maybe its time we start looking at other ways to make money?
Take care and all the best
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