Troilus Mining (TSX: TLG)) / (OTCQX: CHXMF) is prudently advancing a tier-1 N. American Gold (“Au“) – Copper (“Cu“) project. It’s transitioning from development to construction readiness for what will be one of Canada’s largest new Au/Cu mines of the 2020s.
The Company recently completed a rebrand to Troilus Mining, reflecting the multi-metal nature (Au, Cu + modest silver endowment), on a 435 km² land package in the Frôtet-Evans Greenstone Belt in north-central Québec.
Backed by strong exploration results, engineering and permitting milestones, advanced-stage funding negotiations, and an expanded and strengthened leadership team, the Troilus Project is emerging as a globally significant asset.
Encompassing the historic Troilus Mine + adjacent mineralized systems, a May-2024 Feasibility Study underpinned a 22-year, 50K tonnes per day, open-pit operation.
Updated to today’s pricing it demonstrates very robust economics. At near-month futures prices of $5,200/oz Au, and $6.02/lb. Cu, post-tax NPV(5%) is ~C$9.0 billion, with an IRR of ~50%.
Compare that to the Company’s fully-diluted enterprise value of ~C$1.2B. At spot, the payback period is ~2 years, providing an attractive return profile to support equity & debt financing strategies.
Troilus is valued at just 13% of its NPV(spot), vs. ~60-65% for fully-funded Skeena Gold & Silver and Montage Gold.
In the above table, notice that Troilus at C$91/oz is undervalued vs. bulk tonnage low-medium grade peers averaging C$187/oz. This, despite the others having (on avg.) less than half the number of Au Eq. ounces.
It’s also noteworthy that a few projects are in far riskier places than Quebec, like Chile & Ghana, (Africa), and a few are at PEA/PFS stage with a lot more equity dilution coming. At the bottom, I name fully-funded companies, incl. projects in Africa & Brazil.
The average EV/Au Eq. oz ratio of the four is C$835/oz. To make Troilus comparable, I added US$1B = C$1.37B in debt + C$150M in equity to its enterprise value. With that incremental capital, Troilus is valued at C$202/oz.
Even removing higher-grade Skeena & Perpetua Resources, the average EV/oz would be C$746. Note, equity dilution going forward for Troilus should be relatively modest, management raised a big chunk of cash in November 2025.
I believe there are opportunities (but no guarantees) of non-equity dilutive sources such as royalties, government grants, and partially pre-paid off-take agreements.
Last month management issued a detailed 2025 exploration summary highlighting results that confirm mine growth potential + additional upside across the 13M Au Eq. oz Project.
For example, high-grade intercepts in the Southwest Zone’s Reserve Pit corridor, incl. a 2 meter interval grading 78.4 g/t Au Eq., and other robust Au/Cu/Ag intercepts in extended holes from prior programs.
The discovery of the Bear Lake trend in the footwall of the SW Zone is showing encouraging mineralization. Drilling there returned 0.85 g/t Au Eq. (0.81 g/t Au) over 6 meters. Will there be more Bear Lake-like discoveries?
Ongoing geophysics (VTEM + IP surveys) identified conductive bodies that will lead to compelling drill targets in 2026. This mix of resource confirmation and conceptual targets, support resource/reserve confidence levels.
The Company has completed > 85% of basic engineering with BBA Inc., a well-respected global mining & infrastructure consulting group. This work encompasses flowsheet definition, detailed cost estimation & Project logistics.
Troilus Mining’s Environmental & Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) — submitted in mid-2025 — is under review by both Federal & Québec authorities. Federal approval is expected by year end, with provincial approval to follow.
Management, led by CEO Justin Reid, is advancing in parallel across technical, regulatory, organizational, and financial realms. Key pillars include moving from basic to detailed engineering to firm up capital cost estimates & procurement strategies.
Continued stakeholder engagement with Indigenous communities + regulators to secure social license & approvals is ongoing.
Readers are reminded that the Company expanded its financing mandate with a syndicate led by Société Générale, KfW IPEX-Bank, and Export Development Canada to arrange a project debt facility of up to US$1B.
In addition, Troilus secured preliminary long-term off-take terms with leading European copper smelters, including Aurubis AG & Boliden Commercial AB.
These arrangements — structured as part of a broader financing framework — validate the anticipated concentrate quality, aligning the Project with global supply chains seeking long-term, sustainably-sourced Au/Cu/Ag.
Troilus just announced the appointment of Marty Rendall as CFO, bolstering the Company’s financial leadership. Rendall’s nearly three decades of mining finance experience — incl. leading companies through complex financings & operations — provides depth to Troilus’ executive bench.
Investors should weigh the following value drivers. Project scale & optionality — Troilus represents one of N. America’s largest undeveloped Au/Cu resources, (13.0M Au Eq. ounces) with considerable exploration upside.
Consistent higher-grade intercepts & expanding drill coverage boosts confidence in both resource quality and growth potential, complemented by detailed engineering. A construction decision is likely in 1H/27.
The combination of debt package progress, royalty talks, completed equity raises, and preliminary off-take terms underpins a diversified financing approach that should (if all goes reasonably as planned) mitigate onerous equity dilution.
Many development initiatives are underway. For instance, advancing the ESIA and structured stakeholder engagement is instilling confidence in regulatory timelines and proactive community alignment.
Steady de-risking, coupled with strong metal prices, enhances management’s negotiating position for royalties, off-take & debt funding. Patience in finalizing these initiatives — longer than some anticipated — has proven to be advantageous.
Risks remain typical for a BFS-stage project; permitting hurdles, construction cost inflation, commodity price volatility, speed to market — the need to translate permits & funding into definitive timelines.
In my view, the depth of progress in 2025 and 2026 distinguishes Troilus from peers facing greater challenges in terms of jurisdiction, logistics, and earlier-stage profiles.
Troilus is transitioning from Au-centric explorer to a broad-based Au/Cu developer. Growing institutional interest offers a compelling narrative upon which longer-term shareholder value is being built.
As Major & mid-tier producer valuations continue to rise, the number of players that should care about owning the Troilus Project is increasing by the month. Prospective acquirers urgently need near-to-medium term growth in a bull market for Au/Cu/Ag.
Few pre-construction companies, probably less than 2 or 3%, offer 13M (or more) Au Eq. ounces. Fewer still in a Tier-1 jurisdiction like Quebec, Canada.
If/when it becomes a mine, it could be worth a multiple of today’s valuation… Look at Artemis Gold (C$10.6B valuation on a single mine in B.C.).
Or, revisit Skeena, Montage, Perpetua, and Meridian Mining. Troilus Mining at $91/oz is far below PEA-staged G2 Goldfields & New Found Gold at $575/oz & $461/oz, respectively.
Artemis is valued at ~8x 2028e EBITDA. How much EBITDA might Troilus generate once fully ramped up?
Assuming 300,000 Au Eq. oz/yr (expected to be higher in the initial years), $4,500/oz Au and an all-in-sustaining-cost of $1,500/oz (vs. $1,109 in the May-2024 Feasibility Study), EBITDA would be ~C$1.2B. This is just math, not a forecast.
If Troilus could earn an 8x EBITDA multiple in say 2030, generating C$1.2B of EBITDA, that’s a prospective valuation of C$9.6B. Discounting that figure back five years at 10%/yr, it’s ~C$6B.
Due to meaningful execution, permitting, and funding risks, Troilus should not be valued at C$6B today, and one needs to consider roughly C$1.4B in upcoming debt issuance, and perhaps C$150M in equity, but there’s room to move towards C$6B in the coming years.
I recognize that the preceding valuation exercise seems quite bullish ($4,500 Au), but Au is currently ~$5,200. Sure, it could fall below $4,000/oz, but it could also rally to $6,000+ as JPM, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank and SocGen are calling for.
Perhaps an 8x EBITDA multiple is too high? Using 5x-6x would still deliver tremendous value.
Highest forecasts for 2030 Au price from reputable sources…
If a producer is looking to acquire Troilus, a company generating billion(s) in free cash flow, it could presumably increase production well above 300,000 oz/yr, for decades. As it stands, maximum production in year 7 is 536K Au Eq.!
Troilus has enjoyed a big move, but from oversold levels. It’s cashed up with impactful permitting, funding & drill results to report. If one is bullish on Au/Cu prices, Quebec, and the prospects for fairly near-term production, take a closer look at Troilus Mining.
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