An interesting development in the lithium (“Li“) sector has grabbed my attention. Although Li prices remain depressed {see charts}, several producers, developers & explorers are up significantly from 52-week lows.
Liberty Stream is +415%, Global Lithium +363%, Core Lithium +286%, Standard Lithium +291%, Pilbara +269%, Q2 Metals +264%, MinRes +236%, Liontown +220%, Li-FT Power +221%, Lithium Argentina +221%, Ganfeng +195%, Jindalee +186%, PMET Resources +192%, Albemarle +160%, Tianqi +149%…
These are not tiny companies, ten have market caps above C$1B, three > C$15B. Clearly, investors see signs of life not yet reflected in the below charts. The Li carbonate price in China is at an 18-month high, but 84% below its 4Q/2022 peak.
Imagine what those and other Li names might do once Li prices retake US$16,000/t, (currently $13,350/t, +57.5% from 2025 low), on the way to $20,000+. Note, $20,000 would be just quarter of the all-time-high.
The five year chart is bleak, but the one year picture is more upbeat! Lithium has been a bottom (twice) OR top 10% (twice) annual commodity in four of the past 14 years.
Since 2021, about two dozen economic studies have used an LCE price from US$18,000-$30,513/t, with a median of ~$23,500, driving a median post-tax IRR of ~26%. These figures do NOT include spodumene-focused hard rock projects.
In my view, many will need $25,000 due to meaningful cost inflation from PEA/PFS/BFS studies older than 12 months. The world urgently needs all technically, logistically, environmentally sound Li projects, even higher cost ones.
That’s why I’m confident prices have to rise substantially. The following image summarizes bullish commentary from Li companies & financial firms in Oct./Nov., highlighting the strength of Battery Energy Storage Systems (“BESS“).
Headlines in past few weeks…
Global EV penetration is outperforming expectations in 2025, (+23% YTD), but BESS is trouncing estimates, up over +50%. In addition to extraordinary growth in deployments, the portion of BESS using Li-ion batteries is running at roughly 95%!
A few years ago, pundits expected sodium-ion, vanadium flow, zinc-air, etc. to capture meaningful market share in BESS. Yet, very low Li prices has allowed Li-ion to win the race. RK Equity now expects ~1.3M tonnes of Li demand in 2030 from BESS alone.
If BESS is a third of total LCE by then, that would be 3.9M tonnes, triple that of 2024. As an aside, Rio Tinto just canceled a Serbian Li/boron project that would have delivered 58,000 tonnes/yr. from the late-2020s.
A lot of eyes are on Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass (“TP“) project in Nevada, expected to reach production by 1H/28. Construction is well underway.
LAC, along with Albemarle, Standard Lithium and ioneer ltd, are poster boys for U.S. production in the coming years. LAC’s progress is especially important as it has an unconventional clay-hosted, (sedimentary) Li project (not brine/DLE, not hard rock).
Very few, if any, clay-hosted / sedimentary Li projects have been commercialized anywhere in the world. TP is fully-funded — with U.S. & General Motors backing — blazing a path forward for peers like Nevada Lithium Resources.
A defining characteristic of Nevada Lithium’s resource is the combination of high grade (3,150 ppm Li) for the lower portion of Bonnie Claire + massive endowment of 30.8M tonnes LCE (lower portion only).
LAC’s LP (its sole asset) is valued at ~C$4B on a 100% basis (assuming it retains a 56% [direct + indirect] economic interest). Compare that to Nevada Lithium’s fully-diluted enterprise value of ~C$41M. (C$0.17/shr.).
On a relative value basis, I believe Nevada Lithium is far too cheap. 100% of TP is valued at ~98x that of Nevada Lithium, and I don’t think TP is overvalued.
Make no mistake, Nevada Lithium should trade at a very substantial discount to LAC, but a 99% discount is too much! If Li prices continue to improve, LAC’s share price has a nice upside case.
By contrast, Nevada Lithium’s share price could soar. LAC is de-risking not just TP, but the entire clay-hosted Li sector. Below are seven significant risk factors, but management has 5+ years to address them.
In my view, none are insurmountable, especially if the Company prudently follows in the footsteps of LAC. I get asked about Nevada Lithium’s plans to use bore hole mining, a method not being proposed by other Li companies.
It’s no more risky than Direct Li Extraction (“DLE“) projects. Less risky in terms of complexity, but logistically challenging at bulk tonnage scale. Neither DLE nor bore hole mining have achieved commercialization in lithium, although it has seen limited commercial success in the uranium industry.
Unlike the above-mentioned peers up +149% to +415%, Nevada Lithium is +55%. The Company has BOTH more risk AND more potential upside in a budding Li bull market. The market is ascribing less than a 5% chance the Bonnie Claire project will succeed.
Management points out, and I agree, that there’s free optionality in the current valuation as they work with third parties to determine the recoverability of potential by-products cesium & rubidium.
According to a recent press release, “Recovery of these minerals could contribute to increased profitability, as well as the establishment of new supply chains of interest to the U.S. government.”
Even though the Cs/Rb grades are low, bore hole mining pumps everything to surface, not just lithium & boron. If the U.S. gov’t is more likely to support Nevada Lithium due to its Cs/Rb, which, in some respects, are more critical than boron, that would be a win-win.
A few months ago, Nevada Lithium completed a Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA“) on Bonnie Claire. The outcome was excellent, with robust investment metrics generated from a 61-year mine life, producing > 62,000 tonnes of Li carb./yr. + 129,000 tonnes boric acid.
Make no mistake, Bonnie Claire is a Li project. At PEA pricing, Li would be 92% & boric acid 8% of revenue. Other headlines are a US$6.8B post-tax NPV(8%, US$24K/t), +32.3% IRR, and a very attractive 3.2x multiple of NPV/upfront cap-ex.
In 2025 there have been notable bull markets in many Rare Earth Element (“REE“), critical mineral, gold, silver, copper, tungsten, antimony, platinum & palladium stocks, many of which have pulled back for now. A Li bull market has just begun. Will it continue into 2026-27?
This bull has room to run. If so, Nevada Lithium Resources is an excellent high risk / high return vehicle to capture lithium’s rebound, with a side play in boric acid, and possibly cesium & rubidium.
See new corporate presentation.
Disclosures/disclaimers: The content of this article is for information only. Readers fully understand and agree that nothing contained herein, written by Peter Epstein of Epstein Research [ER], (together, [ER] ) about Nevada Lithium Resources, including but not limited to, commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts, calculations, etc. is not to be considered implicit or explicit investment advice. Nothing contained herein is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. [ER] is not responsible under any circumstances for investment actions taken by the reader. [ER] has never been, and is not currently, a registered or licensed financial advisor or broker/dealer, investment advisor, stockbroker, trader, money manager, compliance or legal officer, and does not perform market-making activities. [ER] is not directly employed by any company, group, organization, party, or person. The shares of Nevada Lithium are highly speculative, and not suitable for all investors. Readers understand and agree that investments in small-cap stocks can result in a 100% loss of invested funds. It is assumed and agreed upon by readers that they will consult with their own licensed or registered financial advisors before making investment decisions.
At the time this article was posted, Nevada Lithium was an advertiser on [ER] and Peter Epstein owned shares in the company, acquired in the open market.
Readers understand and agree that they must conduct due diligence above and beyond reading this article. While the author believes he’s diligent in screening out companies that, for any reason whatsoever, are unattractive investment opportunities, he cannot guarantee that his efforts will (or have been) successful. [ER] is not responsible for any perceived, or actual, errors including, but not limited to, commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts & financial calculations, or for the completeness of this article or future content. [ER] is not expected or required to subsequently follow or cover events & news, or write about any particular company or topic. [ER] is not an expert in any company, industry sector, or investment topic.
