As many of you know, I actively follow Colombian politics and I thought that by now the chances for the left to stay in power would be negligible. Unfortunately, for mining investors, and many Colombians, that may not be the case. During the last 3 years, the once idealized image of an honest and idealistic leftist president was shattered by Gustavo Petro’s stupidity.
Petro’s presidency is nearing its end. He lived up to expectations, a true radical always promising butterflies but delivering chaos through incendiary remarks, actions, and policies. There is no question he has damaged the Colombian economy yet a bit of luck was on his side: coffee prices hit their highest levels in decades, and against all odds, the Colombian economy and the Colombian Peso have survived his presidency. Petro was unable to pass key reforms such as a health care reform, and he did not even have the bandwidth in congress to table the long promised mining reform. More significantly, Petro was unable to govern effectively because he was surrounded by incompetent and corrupt politicians. His government has been dogged by accusations of wrongdoing by some of his key ministers like Laura Sarabia and Mario Benedetti. Even Ecopetrol, under Ricardo Roa (Petro’s former campaign manager), has been tainted by allegations of corruption and mismanagement.
The Parties and the Candidates
As of August 27th, there are roughly 50 Colombian presidential candidates from all parties. It’s just too early to predict who the final contenders will be. However, if the left is defeated, we can expect a major shift in many policies, including those impacting the natural resources industry.
The recent assassination of Miguel Uribe changed the political landscape for the right. Miguel Uribe was likely the only current political figure from the right capable of attracting the traditional vote (Liberals and Conservatives), and without question, was the chosen candidate by Alvaro Uribe, the puppet master behind Presidents Duque 2018 and Santos 2010. My perception is that after Alvaro Uribe was found guilty of witness tampering and fraud by the Colombian courts, the “Democratic Center” (Alvaro’s party) radicalized and all candidate's views took on an increasingly messianic tone. It is unclear who will replace Miguel, but just two days ago, his 79-year-old father took the flag to become presidential candidate.
On the polls, Petro still has 30-35% public support. It was surprising to hear some people say that this left-wing government better represents them, especially young people, rural voters, the urban poor, and the environmentalists that remain key pillars of Petro’s base. The challenge for the left is finding a viable candidate. To win, the left must unite quickly, and as of now, they are far from that. It is even difficult to picture them together: from the more ideological María José Pizarro (daughter of Carlos Pizarro, founder of the M-19 guerilla group), to the environmentalist position of Susana Muhamad, Gustavo Bolívar (former Petro loyalist), or technocrat Carolina Corcho. If they were ever to unite, the left could be a formidable contender.
Ultimately, the political center has struggled to find a single voice, or even a unifying issue. Most of its candidates behave more like prima donnas that arrive late to every party. A progressive, pro-business candidate would be a welcome change for a country that suffers from chronic security and governability issues. The problem is that it is hard to see a truly charismatic figure capable of consolidating support and presenting a unified vision for the country. In this group of candidates, we find former mayors of Bogotá and Medellín, Claudia López and Daniel Quintero, alongside traditional Liberal and Conservative candidates.
What’s at Stake for the Natural Resources Industry in Colombia
There is no question that both O&G and mining have suffered a dramatic setback under Petro. For O&G, massive job losses, reduced exploration, and falling exports have created a significant revenue hole for the country. The natural gas deficit has worsened under Petro, pushing Petro's government toward a rhetoric about price controls and Venezuelan energy imports, empty words from a leader stumbling through policy. Expectations of rising demand and tightening/reducing supply remain in place and are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
On the mining side, it has been nothing short of a catastrophe for new investment. No major copper project once touted as vital for a sustainable energy transition has advanced; Petro has found ways to oppose them all. Even established producers like Cerrejón and Buriticá (Zijin) have not escaped Petro's hostility toward the industry. In the Cerrejón’s case, Petro obstructed coal operations, labeling coal as a “poison”. In Buriticá, his administration allowed illegal miners to take control of certain areas by failing to provide military security in the region.
I seriously doubt that mining, as an industry, can expand under another leftist government nor that the FDI will return to the country under a left-wing government. At best, we could expect stagnation. At worst, the current administration's most damaging policies will remain firmly in place, closing the door for any new major project.
Key Dates for Mining Investors to Watch in Colombia’s 2026 Election Cycle
Understanding the political timeline is crucial for evaluating whether Colombia's natural resources sector will remain un-investable or if a pro-business government could bring a major policy shift.
Key dates to watch include:
- Mid-October 2025: The Pacto Histórico (Petro’s coalition) is expected to meet to select a candidate.
- December 8, 2025: All parties must officially present candidates for Congress.
- December 2025 -January 2026: Centro Democrático ( Uribe’s party) is expected to select its candidate.
- March 2026 Official presentation of presidential candidates for the First-round presidential elections.
- May 31, 2026: First-round presidential elections.
- June 2026: Presidential runoff election, if needed.
- August 7, 2026: The new president's inauguration.
Disclaimer: "A week is a long time in politics" therefore my views will evolve as new facts and events are known. This article represent my opinion, and it is not intended as a investment advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument in any of the company/companies hereto mentioned.
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