No matter how you trade Natty $UNG.US $HNU $HND $KOLD.US, $BOIL.US or futures $NG_F it's always a wild ride.
In my experience the begining of August typically presents a good opportunity to start looking at seasonal longs. Let's take a look at what the sesonality trends are.
Here is the cumulative data for the last 30 years where we can clearly see that August through to October are the strongest months. The explanation of the seasonality is two-fold. Firstly there is the Atlantic hurricane season that starts in the summer and can create supply disruptions. Secondly, there is the inventory buildup by utility companies for the winter.
When looking at price action on a longer timeframe, I like to look at $UNG.US as opposed to a continuous futures chart because it is normalized for rollovers and it's less gappy.
05Aug25 $UNG.US looks like it is completing a 5 wave ending diagonal on the daily with a terminal price around the Nov24 lows. We are also 11 bars away from the daily 10ema which is stretched - so not a bad spot/time for a counter trend move. At the time of writing, futures are up slightly +1.4% and $UNG.US looks like there is a slight gap up in the making. A daily up for confirmation would be greatly appreciated!
The targets for the move are still very much TBD. However, given the decline amplitude and magnitude, I would not be terribly surprised to retrace to the .618 around 20.00 before the end of calendar 2025.
