I am, most likely, not going to make any friend here with this post - that's okay with me. I don't have an agenda, I look at the price action and mash the keyboard, it's a fulfilling existence.
At any rate, looking at the monthly gold, it has had a monster rally off the 2020-24 consolidation. In 2025 we hit some big targets (yellow) at the 1.618 and 2.618. Those are big deals on the monthly time series.
Since the hitting a high of $3,594 on the continuous futures, in April 2025, we have been stuck in a range and met with aggressive selling at the .786 around 3,500-3,530. Clearly there is a lack of buyers up there for now.
You will note that we are also vey stretched from the pink MA which is a monthly 10ema. The 10ema is a classic trend indicator and moving level of interest across any timeframe. With 17, going to be 18 bars away from the monthly 10, it would seem logical that we will go check that level at some point and that will be met with aggressive buying.
Going down to the weekly timeframe, there is a bit more clarity around where the buyers may step up. To me, the 2025 move really started in Nov-24 and from that I will measure to the Apr-25 highs. If gold breaks down, I would expect buying to in the area of interest between the .618 at aroud $3,050 and the .786 around $2,900.
Time will tell. Patience is key.
#Gold $GCUSD.CM
