We have complete figures for electric vehicle sales and their impact on battery demand for 2019, partial and projected numbers for 2020, and numbers for 2021 that are projections - or speculations.
At least one thing is certain, the election of Joe Biden to the US presidency will shake up EV sales, jump-start charging station construction, and drive battery technology and battery metals supply-chain concerns.
Biden’s election has already catalysed huge and ambitious automobile company plans, a stimulus for share prices of battery-metals mining companies, and a drive for investments in a US domestic supply chain for an expected boom in battery manufacturing.
To take but one example, analysts believe that sales of gas-powered cars in 2020 to date were driven by President Trump's sharp reduction of emissions standards and extension of their deadlines. Mr Biden has committed to reversing that order, paving the way for EV sales.
To understand prospects for 2021, and what Biden will mean for EVs, we need to look briefly at numbers for 2019 and 2020, with the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2020 forming the basis of our analysis.
2019: A New Record but Slow Growth
In 2019, global sales of electric cars, topping 2018 numbers, reached 2.1 million units, boosting the overall numbers of EVs to 7.2 million. A year-on-year increase of 40% with electric cars accounting for 2.6 % of sales and roughly 1% of the global stock.
The IEA believes that ambitious policy announcements had been critical in stimulating the electric-vehicle rollout in major vehicle markets. While initially governments have offered direct subsidies for EVs, a new policy trend has emerged which centres on regulatory measures, such as mandates for zero-emission vehicles and fuel economy.
It seems safe to say that that trend in 2021 will continue in the United States, given Mr. Biden's promises for a “green revolution”.
However, the comparative numbers for electric cars versus gas-powered cars are superficially unimpressive, especially considering that 2019 was a banner year for EVs. A decade ago, there were 17,000 electric cars, by 2019 that figure was 7.2 million (half in China, but with nine countries topping 100,000 each). Electric car sales in 2019 grew 6.0% from 2018, but that did not compare well with the average gains of 30% a year, since 2016.
Read the Full Article here: https://articles.cruxinvestor.com/the-future-of-electric-vehicles-biden
