Opendoor’s Reset: Can Q2 EBITDA Validate the Eric Jackson Bull Case?, by @AnalyticaInvestor

Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) is no stranger to wild swings. From darling of the SPAC boom to symbol of tech overreach, the company has ridden the highs of a red-hot real estate market and the lows of a rising rate-induced collapse. But as it prepares to report Q2 2025 earnings, expected on August 5, one question now dominates: Is this the long-awaited inflection point or just another brief rally in a broken narrative?

$OPEN has surged more than 200% in the past month, fueled by a short squeeze and renewed retail attention. But this isn’t just another meme-fueled bounce in a busted flipper. There’s growing evidence that Opendoor is staging something more substantive: a strategic reset, early operational momentum, and, for the first time in years, a credible path back to profitability. A view championed by EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson, one of the stock’s earliest and most vocal bulls.

Street Skepticism Remains, But the Setup Has Shifted

But while Jackson is leaning in, Wall Street hasn’t caught up. Analyst sentiment has yet to catch up to the price action. Wall Street remains broadly bearish, with consensus price targets from firms like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Citigroup clustered between $1.30 and $1.55, a full 40% below the current trading level. That pessimism is echoed in Opendoor’s valuation: the company still trades at less than 0.3× trailing revenue, a multiple typically reserved for structurally impaired businesses.

And yet, that disconnect may represent the opportunity. If Opendoor delivers on its Q2 guidance, positive adjusted EBITDA of $10 to $20 million, it would mark a significant turning point in the company’s post-COVID evolution. Even a modest beat could force analysts and institutions to revisit models that haven’t meaningfully updated since the company’s nadir in 2022.

This is the setup: low expectations, a beaten-down multiple, and a meaningful milestone on the horizon.

Opendoor 2.0: A Platform, Not a Flipper

One of the great misconceptions about Opendoor is that it’s simply a tech-enabled house flipper. That may have been true in its earliest iteration, but today’s company looks very different.

Rather than chasing volume, Opendoor is building a vertically integrated transaction engine, one that captures value at every step of the housing process. It has launched a nationwide agent referral program, “Key Connections” that converts seller leads into revenue even when Opendoor isn’t the buyer. Its Cash Plus product gives sellers the certainty of a guaranteed offer while simultaneously listing on the open market, blending iBuyer efficiency with the upside of traditional brokerage. Financing, warranties, title, and even digital closing services are being bundled into a seamless, app-driven experience.

These moves aren’t just incremental upgrades, they’re the blueprint for a different company. Opendoor isn’t optimizing flipping. It’s abstracting it — turning every transaction into an entry point for platform services. Title, financing, agent referrals, digital closing — the transaction is the Trojan horse. The monetization is everything around it.

And if successful, this model could command much higher margins and far more resilient revenue than the flipping-centric model it’s leaving behind.

From Meme Momentum to Measurable Progress

Yes, the rally has been amplified by short interest, which approached 20% of float in July According to Fintel. But that doesn’t explain the full picture. What’s happening under the hood is far more compelling.

Opendoor has spent the last 18 months slashing costs, rethinking its acquisition cadence, and rebuilding its transaction strategy from the ground up. Operating expenses declined 33% year-over-year, while Q1 adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed from $50 million a year ago to just $30 million. Holding periods have shortened, spreads have improved, and inventory turnover is tightening, now averaging just 120 days.

This isn’t the reckless growth of 2021. It’s a measured, margin-first reset designed to prioritize sustainability over scale. And it’s beginning to work.

Model Shift Potential: The Valuation Says It All

$OPEN has traded at wildly different multiples across its lifecycle. At its peak in February 2021, the company commanded a premium 5.1× forward EV/Revenue multiple, reflecting market belief in the iBuyer revolution. But when rising rates and mounting losses crushed sentiment, that multiple cratered, hitting near-zero levels, well below 0.1×, in October 2022. Today, even after a 200% 1 month rally, Opendoor still trades at just 0.4× forward revenue.

To some, that’s just a rebound. To Eric Jackson, it’s a sign the re-rating has only just begun.

Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital, is no stranger to controversial tech bets. His resume includes a string of 100-bagger calls over the past 15 years: Alibaba when it was still private in 2009, Satya Nadella’s appointment as Microsoft CEO (called six months in advance), and early positions in Roku, Twilio, and Carvana during their high-growth phases. More recently, he was early to Carvana again at $11 in 2023, Coinbase at $38, Uber at $44, and deep tech names like DeFi Technologies ($0.64), BTQ Technologies ($0.21), Cipher Mining ($3.80), and Iris Energy at $9. And in early 2025, Jackson publicly called Opendoor a generational opportunity, after buying in at $0.73.

He’s the first to admit not every trade hits. “Plenty of misses,” he says. “But the goal now is fewer misses, more of these.”

His conviction in Opendoor stems from two core beliefs: first, that the company will survive this real estate downcycle, and second, that its evolution into a transaction platform will ultimately justify a far higher multiple. “If you think this company can follow the same arc as CVNA or UBER,” Jackson says, “then 4–5× forward EV/Revenue is back on the table.”

From today’s 0.4× base, that kind of multiple expansion doesn’t just represent recovery, it unlocks multi-bagger potential. And if Opendoor continues to exceed expectations in the quarters ahead, the market may be forced to price in not just survival, but scalable success.

Jackson’s edge isn’t in spotting rebounds; it’s in identifying operating leverage before Wall Street re-rates the model. He’s not trading price action. He’s sizing up the moment where improving unit economics crack consensus assumptions.

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The TAM Is Massive. The Platform Model Can Scale.

At its peak in 2021, Opendoor was buying more than 15,000 homes per quarter. In Q1 2025, $OPEN bought 3,609 houses, not because demand disappeared, but because the company chose to shrink in order to survive. Now, with cost discipline in place and macro conditions stabilizing, it’s positioned to grow again and this time with a stronger foundation.

The opportunity is staggering. According to the National Association of Realtors, the U.S. housing market sees over $2 trillion in annual transaction volume. If Opendoor captures even 1% of that, with approximately $5,000 in revenue per transaction across its bundled services, it could generate $20 billion in annual revenue. That’s the long game: becoming the Stripe or Shopify of residential real estate — not by owning the homes, but by owning the transaction.

That’s a story few investors are currently modeling. But it’s one that could unlock meaningful multiple expansion in the years ahead.

EBITDA Breakeven Is Just the Beginning

Investors won’t see GAAP profitability this year. The company still logged a $392 million net loss in 2024, and most analysts don’t forecast true net income before 2027. But in public markets, trajectory often matters more than destination.

Posting positive EBITDA in Q2, especially after narrowing losses in Q1 would mark the company’s first operational profit in nearly three years. It won’t “prove” long-term profitability, but it would signal that Opendoor has regained control of its model.

Eric Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital and one of Opendoor’s earliest and most vocal bulls, framed it clearly:

“OPEN will likely be EBITDA positive, but bears will call it a fluke. They’ll predict losses in the next two, seasonally weaker quarters and argue the model’s still broken — just like they did with Carvana and Uber.”

For Jackson, the earnings report is not about perfection. It’s about exceeding expectations, showing direction, and reinforcing the long-term play: falling interest rates, rising housing volumes, expanded adoption of Cash Plus, and potential international expansion down the road.

Big Money’s Not Convinced… Yet

Institutional conviction has been tepid. Insider selling and mixed flows have cast a shadow, and the reverse split delay raised eyebrows. But beneath the surface, some large players are staying the course. Vanguard holds a 12% stake. T. Rowe Price, Millennium, and others have added exposure.

This doesn’t look like a wholesale exit. It looks like cautious watching, with a willingness to reengage if the thesis firms up.

What Could Derail the Bull Thesis?

There are real risks. Housing volumes remain sluggish in a high-rate environment. GAAP profitability is still years away. Inventory exposure, though reduced, is not trivial. And dilution could return if capital needs emerge faster than growth.

But here’s the key: these are not unknowns. The market has already priced in these risks. The opportunity now lies in what’s not priced in — namely, sustained operational momentum and the shift toward a scalable, tech-first platform model.

What the Bears Are Missing.

Critics say Opendoor is still unprofitable, still exposed to inventory risk, and still unproven at scale. All true…but also priced in. What’s not priced in: improved spreads and turnover, increasing contribution from adjacent services, and the potential for Opendoor to become a transaction-layer business, not just a buyer and seller of homes. That’s the delta. And Jackson is betting that’s what the market is about to discover.

Final Word: Turning Point or Head Fake?

Opendoor has slashed costs, redesigned its go-to-market, expanded its product set, and is poised to report positive EBITDA. This is not a company throwing darts at growth. It’s one retooling for long-term resilience.

The upcoming earnings report won’t be a mic drop, but it could be a tone shift. If the company shows continued momentum and a roadmap toward consistent profitability, the market may begin to revalue Opendoor not as a busted flipper, but as one of the most ambitious digital transformations in the housing industry.

And if that shift takes hold, today’s $2 price may be remembered as the bottom, not the top.

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