Mines |IMPACT Silver Corp.

Impact Silver Corp. (TSXV: IPT | OTCQB: ISVLF | FSE: IKL) — what it is

IMPACT Silver is a Mexico-focused producer that runs two operating hubs:

  1. Royal Mines of Zacualpan / “Guadalupe Production Centre” (silver-gold-lead-zinc) in central Mexico, operating since 2006 with multiple small mines feeding a central mill. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  2. Plomosas (zinc-lead-silver) in Chihuahua, acquired in April 2023, with a refurbished mill and an ongoing ramp toward design throughput. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

They also own Capire (near Zacualpan), currently care & maintenance, positioned as a restart/optimization optionality asset. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

The company calls itself an “intermediate miner.” In reality, based on reported revenue (tens of millions/year), it’s a small producer with “intermediate” ambitions—but importantly, it’s not a pure explorer; it has real operations and cash flow leverage to metals. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

Asset base and operations

1) Zacualpan / Guadalupe Production Centre (core silver operation)

Snapshot

  • 500 tpd crushing + flotation plant (Guadalupe Production Centre). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Fed by four underground mines (Guadalupe, San Ramon, Alacran, Cuchara) plus Veta Negra open pit. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • The broader regional property package (incl. Capire) is described as 211 sq km. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

What mattered most in 2025 (operationally)

  • Q3 2025: processed 35,437 tonnes, with one ball mill down for a major repair for ~84 days (capacity constrained). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Q3 2025: silver production 150,394 oz, average silver head grade 157 g/t. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Management explicitly talks about shifting the production mix toward higher-grade systems (e.g., Kena vein area) and continuing infrastructure rehab. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

2) Plomosas (zinc growth engine)

Snapshot

  • 30 sq km property in Chihuahua. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Acquired April 2023; refurb + underground restart since 2023; ramping toward ~225+ tpd design capacity. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Recent stated average zinc head grade: 12.7% Zn, which they highlight as globally top-tier grade. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Deposit style: carbonate replacement (CRD) with “mantos.” (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

Resources / drill context

  • Plomosas page cites historical JORC resources reported by a prior operator (Dec 2021):

    • Indicated: 215,000 t @ 13.5% Zn, 6.3% Pb, 34 g/t Ag

    • Inferred: 772,000 t @ 13.1% Zn, 3.0% Pb, 19 g/t Ag
      This is not presented as a current NI 43-101 resource on that page (they flag cautionary statements). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Their 2025 MD&A highlights drill intercepts in the Juarez zone (e.g., 18.03% ZnEq over 2.6 m) and ongoing rehabilitation. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

3) Capire (optional restart + tech angle)

  • Located ~16 km southwest of Guadalupe; includes a 200 tpd pilot plant and an open pit with room to expand. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • They reference a 2016 NI 43-101 inferred resource of >4.5 Moz Ag, 48M lbs Zn, 21M lbs Pb. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • They’re studying XRT ore-sorting to pre-concentrate and reduce milling cost/tailings; they say bulk sample test results were positive. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

Financial performance (latest disclosed)

FY2024 (audited year)

2025 (interim — big picture)

Q2 2025

  • Revenue $9.8M (+27% YoY); YTD revenue $20.5M. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Mine operating income (before amortization/depletion) $1.6M; reported quarterly loss $2.0M (includes deferred taxes, exploration expensing, A&D). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Quarter-end: cash $10.3M, working capital $13.3M, no long-term debt. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

Q3 2025 (MD&A detail)

Financings and capital structure (this is a big deal with IPT)

2025 financings (dilution fuel + runway)

  • $5.2M oversubscribed private placement (June 2025):

    • $0.18 units with $0.24 warrant (3-year);

    • $0.20 LIFE units with ½ warrant (full warrant $0.26, 2-year). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • $16.0M bought-deal LIFE private placement (closed Sept 17, 2025): $0.36/unit, with $0.45 warrant (2-year). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

Shares / warrants / options (as of Nov 26, 2025 per MD&A)

  • Issued & outstanding: 323,882,952 common shares

  • Warrants: ~139.8M (across many strikes/expiries)

  • Options: 3,935,000

  • Fully diluted: 467,624,552 (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

That implies ~44% potential dilution from issued to fully diluted (323.9M → 467.6M). This matters because IPT often trades like a “torque” vehicle to silver/zinc—but the torque is amplified by a very warrant-heavy cap structure.

Near-term overhang to watch: the warrant ladder includes meaningful blocks at $0.22 (Dec 2025), $0.34–$0.35 (2026), $0.45 (Sept 2027), plus longer-dated $0.24 (2028). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

Commercial / offtake concentration

They disclose concentrate sales/contracts currently with Trafigura Mexico (credit concentration risk—one counterparty dominates). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

Management (who’s driving the bus)

The “tell it like it is” investment profile

What IPT is good for

  • Operational leverage to metals (silver at Zacualpan; zinc at Plomosas). When prices move, revenue/margins can move fast. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Multiple shots on goal: Kena vein / new vein development at Zacualpan, Juarez + other targets at Plomosas, and a dormant third asset (Capire) that could come back with tech (XRT). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Balance sheet runway (post-Sept 2025 financing): $25.2M cash, no long-term debt at Sept 30/25. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

What can burn you

  • Cap structure is heavy. Fully diluted is ~468M shares; warrants are enormous. That creates persistent supply into rallies. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Operating volatility is real (ball mill outage, grid/weather disruptions, underground ground conditions at Plomosas). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Mexico policy/regulatory uncertainty is explicitly flagged in their MD&A. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  • Resource/Reserve risk: a lot of production decisions (especially district-style operations) may be driven by ongoing development/exploration rather than long-life, fully-modeled reserves. Treat this as a “perpetual development” mining story, not a classic single-asset reserve mine.

The practical “what to watch each quarter” checklist

  1. Plomosas throughput vs 225+ tpd target and whether head grades stay elite. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  2. Zacualpan tonnes + head grade + downtime (repairs, power outages). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  3. Mine operating income vs net income (non-cash + exploration expensing can mask/flip results). (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  4. Warrant expiry/strike map and whether financing needs appear before big blocks expire. (IMPACT Silver Corp.)

  5. Any NI 43-101 updates (especially if Plomosas gets a modern compliant resource).

According to a document (the Canadian Junior Mining Investment Playbook framework), here’s the full playbook run on IPT (Impact Silver, TSXV:IPT) using the latest disclosed filings + recent releases.

0) Executive summary — what IPT actually is (no hype)

Producer-explorer with two Mexico operating hubs: (1) Zacualpan/Guadalupe silver-dominant district mill complex; (2) Plomosas zinc-lead-silver restart/ramp. It trades like metals torque + microstructure (warrants) more than a clean “producer multiple.”

Most material developments (last ~12 months):

  1. $16.0M bought-deal LIFE closed Sept 17, 2025 ($0.36 unit; $0.45 2Y warrant).

  2. Zacualpan Q3: 35,437 t milled despite 84-day ball mill outage; silver production 150,394 oz; head grade 157 g/t.

  3. Plomosas YTD throughput +48% to 37,704 t; but grade/cost volatility persists.

  4. Warrant overhang extended (big 2025 expiries pushed into Oct/Nov 2026).

  5. Non-core value unlock: LOI to option ~22 km² Zacualpan S.E. to J2 Metals (Sierra Plata) + retain 1.5% NSR.

Market snapshot (last close Dec 24, 2025): $0.41, 52W $0.155–$0.45, RSI ~71, avg vol ~1.92M sh/day, mkt cap ~$135M.

1) Assets & strategy — where value is supposed to come from

Core asset #1: Zacualpan / Guadalupe (silver)

  • District-style feed into a 500+ tpd central plant; ongoing upgrades and “blend optimization.”

  • Reality check: execution risk shows up as downtime + grid outages + shipment delays.

Core asset #2: Plomosas (zinc growth engine)

  • CRD-style zinc-lead-silver system, 3,019 ha, “6 km” structure narrative; restarted and ramping.

  • Q3 2025 actuals: 9,957 t at 8.3% Zn / 4.5% Pb / 30.37 g/t Ag; cost per tonne still elevated while stopes get established.

  • Key tell: the “marketing grade” vs delivered head grade gap is the risk—until they consistently access higher-grade stopes.

Secondary / optionality

  • Capire restart optionality (not re-underwritten here), plus non-core monetization via J2 option deal (cashless exploration exposure + NSR).

What’s actually scarce (if it works): district control + operating mills + leverage to silver/zinc without long-term debt (but paper risk is the trade-off).

2) Development path — “what this stock moves on”

Producer rule: it moves on grade/throughput/costs + guidance credibility.

Management execution steps (in plain English):

  1. Keep Zacualpan steady: reduce downtime, push higher-grade mix (Kena / vein mix).

  2. Stabilize Plomosas mining access: resolve ground conditions/decline relocation; re-open higher-grade stopes; drop unit costs with scale.

  3. Drill to extend mine-life and narrative (they reported ~13,000 m drilling across properties YTD).

  4. Monetize distant/non-core: J2 option (IPT keeps upside via shares + NSR).

Jurisdiction & operating reality: Mexico grid outages and weather disruption are not theoretical—they hit Q3 shipments, and Plomosas saw post-period flooding/road damage.

3) Capital structure & financing — paper risk is real

State case (facts)

As of Nov 26, 2025 (MD&A):

  • SO: 323,882,952

  • FD: 467,624,552 → Dilution = (FD–SO)/SO ≈ 44.4%

Warrant ladder (the ceiling map):

  • $0.34: 21.93M May 17, 2026 + 6.92M Jun 7, 2026

  • $0.35: 30.72M Oct 19, 2026 + 2.45M Nov 3, 2026

  • $0.45: 47.33M Sept 17, 2027

  • $0.24–$0.26 (2027–2028): meaningful blocks

Overhang got worse (extension): large 2025 expiries were proposed to be pushed to Oct/Nov 2026 while keeping $0.35 strike.

Subsequent dilution signal: Dec 24, 2025 option grant 4.8M options @ $0.41 (5Y) (adds to FD and often precedes more stock-comp).

Interpretation

  • This is not a “clean torque” silver/zinc producer. It is torque + embedded supply.

  • Any sustained rerate needs either: (a) cash-flow credibility strong enough to absorb exercises, or (b) a metals tape so hot that warrant supply doesn’t matter.

Dilution Risk Score (1–5): 4/5 (large near-money walls in 2026 + big $0.45 block later).

4) Financial condition — filings, not vibes

Nine months ended Sept 30, 2025 (MD&A):

  • Revenue YTD: $31.2M (+44% YoY).

  • Mine operating income: $3.7M YTD (and $5.6M before DDA).

  • Cash: $25.2M; WC: $27.3M (Sept 30/25).

  • Operating cash flow: -$0.5M over 9 months (big improvement vs 2024).

Runway (blunt): near-term funding risk looks low (post-financing cash), but juniors often re-finance opportunistically on strength—especially with aggressive exploration + growth ambitions.

5) Shareholder/control signals — who can move it (or dump it)

  • I did not pull SEDAR+ ownership/early warning reports in this run, so I’m not asserting “who owns it.”

  • What I can say: option issuance remains active (4.8M grant), and warrant ladders are massive—so supply is structurally baked in.

6) Bull case — upside as an optionality stack

Stage 1: operational torque (base case)

  • Zacualpan keeps 350–500 tpd feed stable; improves grade mix; downtime normalizes (84-day mill hit was a big drag).

Stage 2: Plomosas “works”

  • Ground/access issues resolve; head grades trend back up; unit costs/tonne fall with consistent stopes (they’re explicitly saying costs resist falling until stopes established).

Stage 3: exploration rerate

  • Juarez/other targets add scale; consistent high-grade intercepts become repeatable (they highlight strong ZnEq hits).

Stage 4: non-core monetization

  • J2 spends and pays; IPT collects shares/cash + keeps NSR; market assigns value to “free upside.”

Hard conditions (must be true):

  1. Zacualpan downtime normalizes (no repeat extended mill outages).

  2. Plomosas grades + costs stabilize (no perpetual “pause/relocate/low-grade feed” cycle).

  3. Paper overhang doesn’t smother rallies into the $0.34–$0.35 wall in 2026.

7) Bear case — risk memo (unsugar-coated)

  • Capital structure compression: 44% FD dilution + giant warrant blocks = rallies meet selling/exercise supply.

  • Plomosas execution risk is still live: decline relocation, ground stability issues, and costs remain high until larger stopes exist; flooding/road damage interrupted production post-period.

  • Operational fragility: grid outages + weather delays already impacted shipments in Q3.

  • Counterparty concentration: concentrate contracts currently all with Trafigura Mexico, creating credit concentration (even if they say they monitor it).

  • Commodity downside: if silver/zinc cool off, this equity can de-rate fast while still spending (and then you get the “finance → spend → finance” loop).

8) Key catalysts & calendar — next 6–18 months (dated)

Catalysts that actually change probability:

  • By ~Feb 2026: J2 definitive agreement expected within ~60 days of Dec 23 LOI; TSXV approval + staged payments start (incl. $250k subscription receipts + exploration spend commitments).

  • Mar 13, 2026 (market calendar): next earnings date (watch for Q4/YE numbers + guidance tone).

  • May–Jun 2026: $0.34 warrant wall expiries/decisions (cap or fuel depending on tape).

  • Oct–Nov 2026: $0.35 warrant wall expiries (still massive after extension).

  • Ongoing: Plomosas drilling + operational updates (Juarez and beyond).

9) Quick valuation lens — sanity check, not a full NPV

  • Mkt cap ~ $135M at $0.41.

  • Cash $25.2M (Sept 30/25) → EV ~ $110M (rough).

  • TTM revenue ~ $41.4M (market data) → EV/Sales rough ~ 2.7x (cyclical; not a “cheap/expensive” answer by itself).

  • Capital structure discount is real: FD shares imply “fully diluted market cap” materially higher at the same price.

One-line conclusion: Priced for “metals torque + some execution,” but it needs Plomosas stability + cost control to earn a cleaner multiple—otherwise it stays a trading vehicle into warrant walls.

10) Bottom-line call (blunt, actionable)

Treat IPT as: high-beta producer-torque / trading core, not a long-duration compounder (cap structure is the limiter).

Liquidity & tradability (must pass)

  • Proxy ADV (avg vol): ~1.92M sh/day; at $0.41 ≈ $0.79M/day traded → Liquidity Tier A (real tradability).

  • Position size discipline: if you cap yourself at 10–20% of ADV$, that’s roughly $80k–$160k/day; exit in ≤3 days implies ~$240k–$480k max position in normal liquidity. (Still use limit orders if spread is wide.)

Technicals (entry/exit framework)

  • Trend: up; near top of $0.155–$0.45 52W range; RSI elevated (~71).

  • Resistance: $0.45 (52W high + big later warrant strike).

  • Supply zones 2026: $0.34–$0.35 (largest near-money walls).

  • Support to watch: around $0.35 (microstructure) then prior consolidation levels (confirm on chart before sizing).

Decision

  • Watchlist / Trade-biased Hold unless you have strong conviction Plomosas stabilizes quickly.

  • If you already own it: trim into strength approaching the $0.45 area; reload only on pullbacks where dilution/supply is compensated by price.

Required disclaimer

“This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Canadian small-cap and venture equities are highly speculative, volatile, and illiquid. You should perform your own due diligence or consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions.”